Barrons Independent

Section 1: Company Overview

1. Main Products/Brands

• iPhone: Sales = $213.00b (65% of total revenue), Profit = $53.25b (est.)
• Services: Sales = $78.00b (24% of revenue), Profit = $27.30b (est.)
• Mac: Sales = $34.00b (10% of revenue), Profit = $10.20b (est.)
• Wearables, Home, Accessories: Sales = $40.00b (12% of revenue), Profit = $8.00b (est.)
• iPad: Sales = $25.00b (8% of revenue), Profit = $5.00b (est.)
• Certainty: 70% (Apple does not disclose profit per product line; estimates are based on gross margins)

2. Market Cap: $3,200.00b (as Of March 2025)

Certainty: 60% (projected based on historical trends; market volatility affects accuracy)

3. P/E Ratios

• Trailing P/E: 28.5x
• Forward P/E: 25.0x
• Certainty: 80% (based on 2024 earnings)

4. Liquidation Value Vs Market Cap: Liquidation Value Estimated At $500.00b Vs. $3,200.00b Market Cap

Certainty: 60% (assumes asset fire-sale; excludes intangible value)

5. Book Value/Market Cap: $150.00b / $3,200.00b = 4.7%

Certainty: 70% (book value excludes brand equity)

6. Debt To Market Cap: $110.00b / $3,200.00b = 3.4%

Certainty: 75% (Apple maintains low leverage)

7. Cash - Debt And Cash Ratio To Market Cap: ($60.00b - $110.00b) / $3,200.00b = -1.56%

Certainty: 70% (net debt position)

8. Profit Margins

• Net Profit Margin: 24%
• Operating Margin: 30%
• Certainty: 85% (consistent historical margins)

9. Profit Before R&D Vs Market Cap: $126.00b / $3,200.00b = 3.94%

Certainty: 65% (R&D treated as an expense)

10. Profit Vs Market Cap: $100.00b / $3,200.00b = 3.12%

Certainty: 80% (trailing 12-month net income)

Section 2: Growth And Valuation

1. Expected Growth

• Short-term (2025): 5-7% revenue growth (services drive expansion)
• Long-term: 3-5% (maturing hardware market)
• Certainty: 70% (depends on innovation)

2. 10-Year Valuation: $4.5T (bull Case) Vs. $2.5T (bear Case)

Certainty: 50% (long-term uncertainty) [[6]]

3. Years To Recoup Investment: ~20 Years (assuming 5% Annual Profit Growth)

Certainty: 40% (premium over book value complicates ROI)

4. ROI: 5-7% Annually (low Due To High Market Cap)

Certainty: 40% (sensitive to growth assumptions)

5. Future Goals

• AR/VR Headset Launch: 60% success probability (moderate profit impact)
• Autonomous Vehicles: 30% success probability (high risk, high reward)
• Certainty: 60% (R&D timelines uncertain)

Section 3: Leadership And Ethics

1. CEO Ethics: Tim Cook Has No Major Controversies

Certainty: 80% (reputation intact)

2. Ethical Accounting: GAAP-compliant; Minor Concerns Over Supply Chain Audits

Certainty: 70% (audits show compliance but limited transparency)

4. History Of Fraud: None

Certainty: 90% (strong governance track record)

Section 4: Operational Efficiency

1. AI Advantages: Improved Siri, Camera Features, And Supply Chain Optimization

Certainty: 70% (incremental gains)

2. Main Risks: China Supply Chain Disruptions, Regulatory Scrutiny

Certainty: 80% (well-documented risks)

3. Altman Z-Score: 3.2 (safe Zone)

Certainty: 70% (strong liquidity)

4. Piotroski F-Score: 8/9 (strong Financial Health)

Certainty: 70% (consistent profitability)

5. GAAP Compliance: Full Compliance

Certainty: 90% (audited reports)

Section 5: Ownership And Sentiment

1. CEO Ownership: 0.02% ($640M)

Certainty: 80% (SEC filings)

2. FCF: $100.00b (stable)

Certainty: 80% (recurring services revenue)

3. ROIC: 30% (High Efficiency)

Certainty: 75% (capital allocation strength)

4. Sentiment: Positive Customer Loyalty; Mixed Investor Sentiment (valuation Concerns)

Certainty: 70% (survey data)

Section 6: Historical Performance

• Revenue Growth: 5-10% annually (2022-2024)
• Margin Trends: Stable at 24-26% net margin
• Certainty: 85% (audited financials)

Section 7: Final Evaluation

1. Scoring (0-10)

• Financial Health: 8/10
• Growth Potential: 7/10
• Risk Profile: 6/10
• Leadership: 8/10
• Competitive Position: 9/10
• Weighted Score: 7.5/10

2. Final Recommendation: Hold

• Rationale: Strong fundamentals but limited upside at current valuation
• Bias Check: Adjusted score from 7.5 to 7.0 (overrating brand resilience)

3. Premium/Discount: Undervalued If Service Growth Exceeds 10% Annually

• Data Sources: Morningstar, SEC filings, historical trends
• Uncertainty Handling: Bolded items reflect <50% certainty